Explainer: How many seats will BJP get, where and how?

Prashant Kishore verses Yogendra Yadav

The sixth phase of elections concluded today. There is current discussion surrounding two prominent figures: Prashant Kishore and Yogendra Yadav. Prashant Kishore predicts BJP will secure over 303 seats by June 4, citing the absence of an anti-incumbency wave against PM Modi. Following this, American political analyst Ian Bremer forecasts that BJP will achieve its highest seat count in this election cycle.

What are the discussions?

In a discussion, Prashant Kishore mentioned that PM Narendra Modi’s BJP is likely to retain power, with their seat count either remaining stable or slightly improving. He emphasized the absence of noticeable public discontent towards PM Modi.

What did Ian Bremmer say?

Political analyst Ian Bremmer shared his perspective on the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, suggesting that BJP could secure between 295 to 315 seats. In 2014, BJP clinched power with 282 seats, while their alliance collectively won 336 seats.

Yogendra Yadav’s assessments for the Lok Sabha elections are as follows:

  • BJP: Predicted to win between 240 to 260 seats, with allies potentially securing 35 to 45 seats.
  • Congress: Estimated to secure 85 to 100 seats, with alliance parties potentially winning 120 to 135 seats.
  • BJP’s Seat Count: Suggested that BJP will likely fall below 272 seats, possibly even below 250 seats, not reaching the 300-seat mark as previously anticipated.
  • Opposition Alliance (INDIA): Expected to secure 205 to 235 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
  • Potential Loss in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand: Anticipated that BJP might lose 10 seats in these regions, with a possibility for the opposition alliance to overtake NDA if they perform exceptionally in the upcoming phases.

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