The formula on which BJP won 156 seats in Gujarat, now the party is going to try the same formula in the Karnataka assembly election as well. Under this, tickets of about 30% of MLAs will be cut. Tickets will be deducted for those whose survey reports have come negative. The CM is not being changed here like in Gujarat, because now only three months are left for the elections. It is certain that even if BJP wins and returns to power, Basavaraj Bommai will not be made CM again.
A big change is also going to happen in the state organization before the elections. According to a senior BJP leader, his entire team including the state president of Karnataka will be removed soon. Its purpose is to convey this message to the people that old people are being removed and new people are being brought in.
The BJP government in the Karnataka assembly election is battling heavy anti-incumbency. In the survey reports that are coming now, the party is expected to get only 60 to 70 seats, while 113 seats are needed for the majority.
On the other hand, it is a matter of concern for Congress that even in the survey it does not seem to be getting a majority. Congress is expected to get 80 to 90 seats. In such a situation, the hope of the BJP returning to power once again remains intact. If the BJP is able to do this, it will be the first time in the 37-year history of Karnataka that a party will come to power for the second time in a row.
All the reports reached PM Modi, and the final decision is his only.
There are 3 surveys behind the change in the organization and the decision to cut tickets. Home Minister Amit Shah, the Government of Karnataka, and the organization have got their surveys done separately. All these reports have reached PM Modi’s office.
By the end of this month or by the first week of February, orders will be received from there that elections have to be contested under this strategy. It is clear that both the Prime Minister and the Home Minister are not happy with the work of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. In Karnataka, the government could not complete even a single major task.
Yediyurappa, 79, will become the head of the campaign committee
Former CM BS Yediyurappa may soon be announced as the head of the election campaign committee. However, he has already made it clear that he will not contest the elections now. According to sources, 79-year-old Yediyurappa wants to make way for his sons. He has set a target of winning 130 seats for the BJP this time.
After meeting the Prime Minister, Yeddyurappa also started Vijay Sankalp Yatra. In Karnataka, apart from him, BJP does not see any other face who can win.
The senior leader also told that as per the indications so far, if the government comes to power, Bommai will not be made the Chief Minister, this is confirmed. No one knows who will be. Some such names can emerge from leadership, which will surprise everyone. However, in the current situation, it seems difficult to form a government.
Preparation to change the entire team including the state president
In August 2019, the party appointed Nalin Kumar Kateel as the Karnataka BJP president. He had replaced Yediyurappa, but Kateel’s statements did the party more harm than good. Recently, he had said that activists should focus on the issue of love jihad and not on the problems of roads and sewage. He also said that if you want to stop love jihad, then we need BJP for this.
After his statement, Congress got an opportunity to attack the BJP. The Congress said that the BJP is trying to divide the country. Senior BJP leader told that Yeddyurappa was taking everyone along. Along with Hindus, Muslims were also liking him. That is why BJP was able to form the government in Karnataka, but even PM Modi is not happy with the way Kateel is openly making statements.
Shah asked – why only 15 out of 66 seats in Old Mysore
Broadly Karnataka is divided into 6 regions. It includes Bengaluru Urban, Old Mysore, Kittur Karnataka (earlier Mumbai Karnataka), Coastal Karnataka, Hyderabad Karnataka, and Central Karnataka. In 2018, BJP was able to win only 11 seats out of 28 seats in Bangalore Urban. Similarly, out of 66 seats in Old Mysore, only 15 seats were won.
According to a senior BJP leader, Amit Shah is angry over the situation in Old Mysore. He reprimanded the leaders there and asked that the leaders of the opposition parties doing politics there are immersed in corruption, yet why you could win only 15 seats? It also said why politics is being done there in collusion with other parties.
After Shah’s reprimand, the leaders in Old Mysore who were still now doing politics in connivance with opposition parties have come on the radar. The BJP has 26 out of 44 seats in the Mumbai-Karnataka region.
The BJP won 16 out of 19 seats in Coastal Karnataka because the Hindutva agenda is strong here. The party won 15 out of 40 seats in the Hyderabad Karnataka region and 21 out of 27 seats in Central Karnataka. Old Mysore is the biggest region, but the condition of the party there is very bad, so this time it is preparing to use maximum power here.
Old Mysore or South Karnataka is dominated by the Vokkaliga community, which accounts for 15% of the state’s population. This population affects the districts of Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Tumkur, Kolar, and Chikkaballapur. Mandya has more than 50% Vokkaligas.
South Karnataka is also a stronghold of the Janata Dal-Secular. Former PM HD Deve Gowda and senior Congress leader Siddaramaiah have considerable influence here. In the 2013 assembly elections, Congress won 27 seats and JD(S) won 25 seats. BJP got only 4 seats then.
Considered to be the Silicon Valley of India, Bangalore has mostly middle-class and educated young professional voters. According to the Economic Survey of Karnataka 2021-22, Bengaluru has a per capita income of Rs 5.41 lakh, which is 5 times more than Kalaburagi, the lowest-ranked district. Here BJP and Congress have been in equal competition. In 2013, the Congress had won 13 seats and the BJP 12.
Despite being a mining belt, this region is economically backward. The Reddy brothers, who came into the limelight due to the Rs 16,000 crore mining scam, and Bellary, a Congress bastion, are in this region. Sonia Gandhi contested her first election from Bellary itself.
Banjara community has a sizeable population in this region. PM Modi held a rally on January 19 and gave pattas to 52,000 people in the community. Bidar, Bellary, Kalaburagi, Koppal, Raichur and Yadgir districts come under this region. Congress National President Mallikarjun Kharge is from the Bidar district only.
The Congress has been accusing the BJP of making this region a laboratory of Hindutva. In the 2018 elections, BJP had campaigned with its firebrand leaders Yogi Adityanath and Anant Hegde. Hinduist organization Shri Ram Sena has influence in this area. In the 2013 elections, the Congress had won 14 of the 19 seats here. Then the BJP’s votes were divided due to Yeddyurappa’s formation of a new party.
In central Karnataka, the Lingayat community plays a pivotal role in Davanagere, while Chitradurga has the same status as a religious monastery. Yeddyurappa hails from Shivamogga in Central Karnataka. Due to this BJP has dominance in Shivamogga and Chikmagalur districts. In the 2013 assembly elections, the Congress had won 15 seats here.
This region bordering Maharashtra is dominated by the Lingayat community. Water scarcity is a big problem here. Yediyurappa dominated the region in 2004 and 2008, but in 2013 Congress registered a landslide victory.
An independent agency has predicted 27 to 28 seats for the Congress and 14 to 16 seats for the BJP in the region. Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai changed the name of this region from Mumbai Karnataka to Kittur Karnataka in 2021 amidst the ongoing border dispute with Maharashtra.
