Explainer: How can NDA cross 400? If BJP increases votes by 13 percent…

BJP has set a milestone of 370 seats for itself

BJP has set a milestone of 370 seats for itself to achieve a result of 400 for The National Democratic Alliance (NDA). If only one parameter is taken… i.e. if this claim is evaluated on the basis of vote percentage, then it appears that there is some substance in this claim. Do you have power. BJP has been increasing its vote percentage from election to election and its seats have also kept on increasing, whereas after 1984, Congress’s vote percentage has not increased. Its seats have also continuously decreased. After 1984 till 2014, no government got absolute majority.

Since National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ‘s claim of crossing 400 is the highest since Rajiv Gandhi’s highest of 414 seats in 1984. So the assessment can be done considering this election as the focal point.

In 1984, the total number of voters was 38 crore, out of which 24 crore people voted. Then Congress had got almost 50 percent i.e. 12 crore votes whereas in 2019 also they got the same number of votes (11.94 crore). It is noteworthy that in 2019 the number of voters had increased to around 80 crores. In 2024 this number will increase to approximately 94 crores.

If analysis is done on this basis, then a logic appears in favour of BJP that their seats and votes have increased in every election. But to achieve this big target, not only BJP but also their alliance partners will have to get many additional seats. Will also have to be removed.
BJP will have to increase its seats by about 13 percent. That means it will have to get approximately 50 percent votes, increasing from the current 37 percent votes. If BJP is successful in doing this then it can definitely reach closer to its target i.e. 370 seats.

Why is BJP ineffective in Tamil Nadu? What is the party’s plan to win Lok Sabha seats?

Emphasis on Cadre...Credibility...Leader...Alliance

Recently, BJP got a big lead in Tamil Nadu. 15 former AIADMK MLAs and one former MP joined the party. Tamil Nadu is a big challenge for the BJP because it is one of those states where the Modi-Shah duo has not been able to make an impact so far.

If we talk about the last 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then BJP was reduced to zero. However, it was successful in winning 4 seats in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections. A special story can be made analyzing the situation of BJP in Tamil Nadu.

Why is BJP weak in Tamil Nadu?

1. BJP’s biggest strength is not in its cadre-infrastructure state.
2. Till now there is no popular local leader in the state, whereas Tamil Nadu is the kind of state where a charismatic leader is the guarantee of crowd and vote bank. However, now BJP has got a young and militant president like Annamalai who is doing tremendous work.
3. Failure to connect itself with local issues – BJP’s stand on issues like Tamil identity, agricultural problems, water management is not clear.
4. Trust in alliance- Was the junior partner of AIADMK for a long time.
5. Severe shortage of winnable candidates.
6. The party’s image as a hardcore Hindutva party also remains a hindrance in its acceptance in the state.

‘Respect to the workers, respect to the Ram Mandir agitator, attention to the rebel Congress-women section’ Know the strategy of BJP’s selection of Rajya Sabha candidates!

Elections are going to be held for 56 seats of Rajya Sabha. Of these seats, BJP will get 28 seats. Names of candidates announced by BJP for 28 seats. There are 24 new faces among them, only four people are being sent to Rajya Sabha again.
Analysis of the strategy adopted by BJP behind the selection of Rajya Sabha candidates in this election…

1. Strategy to bring big faces from Lok Sabha – With the announcement of names, it became clear that Union Ministers Bhupendra Yadav, Dharmendra Pradhan, Mansukh Mandaviya, Narayan Rane, Purshottam Rupala, V Muraleedharan and Rajeev Chandrashekhar will be invited to Parliament. The path of elections will have to be adopted. Bringing big faces through the Lok Sabha elections not only creates a strong election atmosphere but also impacts many nearby seats.
2. Emphasis on emerging new leadership from the states – By fielding Rajya Sabha MPs in the Lok Sabha elections, new faces of the party can emerge politically in many states. Like- Dharmendra Pradhan in Odisha and Mansukh Mandaviya in Gujarat. Bhupendra Yadav from Rajasthan. These are all young leaders who can strengthen the party in the state for the next many years. The change in leadership that Modi-Shah is seeking in place of old leaders will also be fulfilled.
3. Attempt to weaken Congress at every level – Ashok Chavan, who joined BJP from Congress in Maharashtra, was made a Rajya Sabha candidate within a few days. Similarly, in UP too, RPN Singh has also been made the Rajya Sabha candidate. Both their families have been old Congressmen. He has a good influence. Ashok Chavan’s father Shankarrao Chavan has also been the Chief Minister of Maharashtra. Similarly, another old Congressman Milind Deora was given ticket from Shinde Shiv Sena. Deora’s family has been a longtime Congress loyalist. His father Murli Deora has also been a minister at the Centre.
4. Common workers and those who lost the assembly also get a chance – Amarpal Maurya, Sangeet Balwant, Sadhna Singh from UP. Amarpal Maurya had contested the assembly elections from Unchahar in Rae Bareli but he lost. Sangeeta Balwant was MLA from Ghazipur but lost the last election. Sadhna Singh is the president of District Industry Trade Board Chandauli. All these names are less famous and ordinary workers. This is an attempt to give the message that the top leadership is taking full care of the ordinary workers also. Apart from this, his services will be taken care of even if he loses any election.
5. Focus on farmer leaders- Banshilal Gurjar, who is being sent to Rajya Sabha from Haryana, is the national vice president of BJP Kisan Morcha. An attempt is being made to help the farmers through these.
6. Weightage given to women – Maya Narolia, who is being sent to Rajya Sabha from Madhya Pradesh, has been the president of BJP Mahila Morcha. The result of Modi’s focus on four sections like women, farmers, youth and poor. A large section of voters is being wooed through women.
7. Importance of people associated with Ram Temple- BJP has declared Dr. Ajit Gopchade from Maharashtra as its candidate for Rajya Sabha elections. Dr. Ajit Gopchade went to Ayodhya and did kar seva during the Ram Mandir movement. BJP is going into the Lok Sabha elections this time citing Ram Mandir as its biggest achievement. An attempt is being made to convey this message through Gopachhade.

What was the strategy of sending people to Rajya Sabha in the Vajpayee-Advani era?

During the Vajpayee-Advani era, those people who had lost the Lok Sabha elections or whose intellectual skills were useful for the party were sent to the Rajya Sabha. Which were considered the think tank of the party. Like Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha, Chandan Mitra, Balbir Punj, Arun Jaitley, Pramod Mahajan, Jaswant Singh shaped the strategy of the party. Modi Shah made changes in this plan. Now the party is working on a different strategy from the one mentioned above for the selection of candidates.