Prashant Kishore, Yogendra Yadav, Naresh Arora and Sanjay Kumar
During the election season, various political analysts and strategists have offered their forecasts on the outcomes, with differing projections of success and failure. Among these, Prashant Kishore, Yogendra Yadav, Naresh Arora, and Sanjay Kumar have all weighed in with their predictions.
Prashant Kishore, the founder of Jan Suraj and a native of Bihar, anticipates that the BJP will see an increase in seats compared to the 2019 elections. He predicts that the BJP, which won 303 seats last time, will secure an additional 15 to 20 seats this time around. However, he also stated that the BJP will not reach the 370-seat mark but will not fall below 270 seats either.
Yogendra Yadav, a political activist associated with Swaraj Abhiyan and Bharat Jodo Abhiyan, posits that the BJP will secure fewer than 272 seats, potentially falling within the range of 240 to 260 seats. According to Yadav, if the BJP’s seat count is less than 300, it will indicate a lack of a BJP wave. He further suggests that even if the BJP wins 299 seats, it would be considered a moral defeat. In such a scenario, it would be perceived that they lost the elections but would form the government through manipulation.
Naresh Arora, a political analyst, believes that the BJP could see an increase in seats compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. While he acknowledges losses in some states, he also points to potential gains in the eastern and southern regions, including states like Odisha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, and possibly even an increase in seats in Uttar Pradesh. However, he notes that the BJP may face setbacks in states like Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Punjab, though he expects these losses to be relatively minor.
Sanjay Kumar, a professor at the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi, does not foresee a wave in favor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP in these elections. He observes that while there may be localized waves for the BJP in certain states, there is also significant opposition in others. Kumar predicts that the BJP may not experience a wave but could still secure a substantial number of seats, and he also suggests that the Congress party may see some gains in the elections.
