There are two big news.
- Sonia Gandhi will declare Mayawati as the Prime Ministerial candidate on behalf of I.N.D.I.A alliance (9 March to 15 March)
- Assembly and Lok Sabha elections can be held simultaneously in Bihar.
Sonia Gandhi is going to make Mayawati the Prime Ministerial candidate from the I.N.D.I.A alliance. This announcement will be made from March 9 to March 15. Sonia Gandhi believes that if the current Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge is made the Prime Ministerial candidate, it will take a lot of time to convince the common people in North India that Mallikarjun Kharge is a Dalit. If Mayawati is made the Prime Minister candidate then Mayawati will be like a Dalit identity among the Dalit community in North India. Dalits will unite and join the India alliance as soon as the PM candidate is declared.
Uttar Pradesh
Bihar
Punjab
Haryana
Chhattisgarh
Madhya Pradesh
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Maharashtra
SC and ST of these states will unite in the name of Dalit identity. And then the fight may be a close contest between NDA and India alliance. Mayawati’s only trump card against the politics of Ram temple and religion is the Dalit vote bank. Because it is difficult to connect the backward classes with the India alliance in such a short time.
2-Assembly and Lok Sabha elections can be held simultaneously in Bihar, NDA will benefit from this.
For the last several weeks, there has been discussion that by dissolving the Assembly in Bihar, elections for Lok Sabha and Legislative Assembly can be held simultaneously. However, JDU and BJP leaders have been denying this on camera.
Why can Lok Sabha and Legislative Assembly elections be held simultaneously in Bihar?
The main reason for this is Tejashwi Yadav. Political experts are surprised by the speed with which Tejashwi Yadav’s political graph has increased on the ground of Bihar in the last ten days. Tejashwi Yadav is being discussed in every village. Tejashwi was successful in taking credit for providing the job. Even in the case of controversial officer KK Pathak, Tejashwi Yadav and the opposition seemed successful in taking credit.
Tejashwi seems to be successful in building his image at the national level in opposition. This has become a matter of great concern for the strategists of BJP and JDU. The process of transformation of the party adopted by Tejashwi Yadav under his leadership may also cause uneasiness.
MY equation to BAAP
Tejashwi has started trying to change the game by taking MY equation to BAAP. In BAAP, B is Bahujan but A means forward and surprising. While NDA strategists want to strengthen their presence in the extremely backward vote bank, Tejashwi is trying to break the vote base of NDA.
This time Tejashwi wants to break the Bhumihar voters in Agada vote bank. Till now Bhumihar has stayed away from RJD politics. But this time in the Lok Sabha elections, Tejashwi can place a big bet on Bhumihars.
The craze about Tejashwi is on the rise among the core Yadav voters. In such a situation, Bhumihar candidates can be fielded on the Lok Sabha seats dominated by Tejashwi Yadavs. Nawada and Jehanabad seats are important in this. There is discussion that RJD may increase the number of Bhumihar candidates in place of Rajputs. Bhumihar is considering fielding candidates in Motihari, Vaishali, Munger.
Anyway, Bhumihar voters feel that their share in NDA has reduced in the Lok Sabha. Last time only one Bhumihar Giriraj Singh got the ticket from BJP. One Chandan Kumar from LJP and one Lalan Singh from JDU. All three won. But this time Bhumihar and Vaishya voters can become a challenge for BJP.
This is a matter of social equation. Tejashwi wants to erase the slogan of Jungle Raj with the slogan of development and employment. Therefore today he also introduced a new definition of RJD.
Tejashwi is trying to get out of the Lalu brand political shadow. And this effort is forcing the strategy makers of BJP and JDU to think.
If both the elections are held together then Modi will be the face. Votes will be sought in the name of Modi and Nitish’s flippant and unreliable image will be left behind. BJP’s core voters and extremely backward caste voters can vote together in the name of Modi.
If elections are held simultaneously, the opposition will be trapped in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. If they come together then the opposition will not be able to prepare well, which can benefit the ruling party. If elections are held along with Lok Sabha elections, the floating voters can go with BJP and JDU in the name of Modi.
The biggest advantage for BJP
The biggest advantage for BJP will be that the face which the party was struggling with will come forward in the form of Modi. The bargaining capacity of allies will reduce if elections are held simultaneously. There will be no possibility of them turning over and moving around.
BJP will contest more seats in the Lok Sabha and also in the Assembly on the strength of its current numbers. There is not much majority right now and the danger of this will also end. The people whom BJP is bringing in by breaking them cannot join the party and it will not be easy to carry it for two years. Stopping the expansion of the cabinet and breaking the MLAs could be part of the strategy going into the elections. According to me, this will be a masterstroke by BJP and NDA can repeat its 2010 performance. BJP will also become the Chief Minister only then.
