Will the opposition be able to stop PM Modi’s winning chariot in 2024?
Will the opposition be able to stop PM Modi’s winning chariot in Lok Sabha Election 2024? This question is asked every day from every square to the corridors of power. There are two reasons for asking this question. Firstly, the BJP started Mission-400 only 4 months before the elections, on the other hand, the dispute over seat sharing in the opposition has not been resolved.
The second major reason for asking the question is the performance of the BJP in North India, especially in the Hindi belt. In the recent elections of 3 states, BJP has defeated Congress badly. The average vote percentage for BJP in all three states has been 45 percent. In comparison, Congress has got only 40 percent votes.
BJP has set a target of getting 50 percent votes in 2024. Political experts say that the BJP has left Shigufa to gain a psychological edge so that the scattered opposition goes on the back foot.
How many seats do India and NDA parties have?
There are 38 parties in NDA including BJP, which currently has 332 seats in the Lok Sabha. This is 60 percent of the total Lok Sabha seats. The opposition consisting of 28 parties has 141 seats.
If we talk about state government, the opposition is in power in 10 states, while the NDA is in power in more than 15 states. The maximum number of Lok Sabha seats are in UP (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42), Bihar (40) and Tamil Nadu (39).
Out of these top 5 states, India Alliance is in power in 3 states and NDA is in power in 2 states.
Understand from 3 figures where the opposition will have to play?
Small parties are guaranteed victory in these states
Other parties are quite important on 153 seats in Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, North-East, Odisha and West Bengal. According to a recent opinion poll conducted by a TV channel, NDA can get 42 percent votes here, due to which it can easily win 80-90 seats.
India alliance is estimated to get 38 percent votes. India alliance is said to get 50-60 seats in these states. Other parties are expected to get 20 percent votes and 10-20 seats.
Political analysts predict that the seat calculations here could be reversed if the Indian alliance makes adjustments to its equations in these states and moves the votes of minor parties by 4–5%.
The India Alliance has undoubtedly succeeded in bringing small parties together in Bengal, Bihar, and Jharkhand, but in Assam and Odisha, an agreement has yet to be reached.
Congress will have to work harder here
The northern Indian states of Delhi, Haryana, UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Kashmir, MP, Rajasthan, and Himachal comprise the 180 Lok Sabha seats. Data from opinion polls suggests that the NDA alliance could win 150–160 seats from these states in the Lok Sabha. India is reportedly going to receive 20–30 seats.
The average percentage of votes in each of these states varies greatly. There have been predictions that the NDA will receive 50% of the votes in these states and 36% of the votes in India.
It’s interesting to note that India’s Congress and the BJP of the NDA compete directly in most of the northern states. MP, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh are notable among them.
In the last elections, Congress had only 1 seat in these states. If Congress performs well here this time, the game of 2024 may change.
The better performance of Congress in these states is also being talked about because –
- According to C-Voter, 30.04% of people say that BJP may suffer a loss in the Lok Sabha elections due to Vasundhara not being made the Chief Minister of Rajasthan and Shivraj in Madhya Pradesh. In both the states, BJP has handed over the post of CM to a new face. In the last elections, BJP had won unilaterally in both the states.
- According to C-Voter, 44.4 percent of people say that Congress will benefit from the new leadership in these states in the Lok Sabha elections. Congress has handed over the command of the state to Jitu Patwari in Madhya Pradesh and Deepak Baij in Chhattisgarh.
- Congress has become stronger in Haryana and Himachal as compared to 2019. There is a party government in Himachal. In 2019, the BJP had won 14 seats in these two states.
Chance of clean sweep in these states
BJP’s condition is not good in 5 southern states. If India wants an alliance here, it can also do a clean sweep. According to C-Voter opinion poll, NDA may get 20-30 seats in 5 southern states.
It is said that India Alliance will get 70-80 seats and other parties will get 25-35 seats. BJP is in a strong position only in Karnataka and Telangana. If Congress sets up a barricade here, BJP may suffer a lot in the south.
Last time BJP had got 25 seats in Karnataka and 4 seats in Telangana of South India. In both the states, Congress has become stronger compared to 2019.
Presently there is Congress government in Karnataka and Telangana.
The opposition will have to work on these fronts also
Two major flaws of the opposition have come to light. The first major flaw is regarding unity. Experts say that the way news of discord comes out after every meeting, it sends a wrong message to the public.
The second major flaw is regarding the face. In the survey, 34 percent people considered Rahul Gandhi as a suitable face for the post of Prime Minister, while 13 percent took the name of CM Arvind Kejriwal, 10 percent took the name of Nitish Kumar, 9 percent took the name of Mamata Banerjee.
The opposition will have to resolve this dispute completely before the elections and all the big leaders will have to give a strong message to their supporters, only then things can be resolved.
