ABP-C Voter Opinion Poll
New Delhi: The latest ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll, preceding the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, offers insights into potential outcomes across states and union territories. With a larger respondent base than before, this survey presents intriguing predictions just days before the initial election phase on April 19. The BJP-led NDA is estimated to secure a total vote share of 46.6%, with the BJP itself likely to garner 40.2% of the votes. The I.N.D.I.A bloc could follow closely with a 39.8% vote share, while the Congress is unlikely to exceed 19.2% of the votes independently.
As per the ABP-CVoter survey, the NDA might fall short of its ‘ab ki baar, 400 paar [This year, 400+ seats]’ goal but is anticipated to achieve a resounding victory, projected to secure 373 seats out of the total 543. The BJP, individually, could win 323 seats, marking a rise of 20 seats from the previous Lok Sabha polls, comfortably surpassing the majority mark of 272.
The Congress is expected to see a slight increase from its 2019 tally of 52 seats, potentially securing 65 seats independently in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, allies from the former UPA could win 59 seats, resulting in a total of 124 seats for the ‘UPA combine.’ The ‘united Opposition’ bloc of I.N.D.I.A, inclusive of additional parties across various states, is predicted to secure a total of 155 seats.
Based on the survey data, it appears that despite Rahul Gandhi’s 2022-23 Bharat Jodo Yatra and this year’s two-month-long Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, the impact on voters seems minimal. The Congress, which had previously won over 414 seats in a general election four decades ago, now faces challenges in securing even a single seat in certain states and union territories like Delhi, Himachal, Andhra Pradesh, among others. The BJP is expected to dominate the Congress in significant states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Chhattisgarh. In approximately 10 states and union territories, the Congress and its allies are unlikely to secure more than one seat.
The BJP’s anticipated success stems from significant victories in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal, despite notable protests by farmers and the Rajput community across various constituencies.
ABP-C Voter Opinion Poll Highlights In Key States
Uttar Pradesh: No Surprises
In Uttar Pradesh, the most significant state in terms of seats, the BJP-led NDA is anticipated to secure 51% of the vote share. The I.N.D.I.A bloc, primarily represented by the Samajwadi Party, is expected to receive a vote share of 38%. The remaining votes may be distributed among Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, Independents, and other parties. Regarding seat distribution, the NDA is positioned for a significant win with 73 seats. The SP+ alliance is projected to secure the remaining 7 seats in the 80-seat assembly.
Rajasthan & Gujarat: Clean Sweep
Rajasthan is poised for a potential clean sweep by the BJP, securing all 25 constituencies. The BJP, without any allies in the state, boasts a strong support base in this region. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP narrowly missed a clean sweep, winning 24 seats, while the Congress failed to secure any seats and is unlikely to show improvement this year.
A similar scenario unfolds in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, where the BJP is forecasted to sweep all 26 seats, leaving the Congress with no seats.
Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh: Saffron Dominance
In Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP maintained power in the recent assembly polls, a saffron wave is expected with the BJP likely to clinch 28 out of 29 seats. The Congress might secure a single seat, obtaining a respectable 43.3% vote share.
Chhattisgarh is anticipated to continue the BJP’s momentum from the assembly elections last year, with the party projected to win 10 out of 11 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress may secure one seat. Despite this, the vote share difference between the BJP and Congress is relatively close, with the BJP expected to receive 49.8% of the votes compared to the Congress’s 44.4%.
West Bengal: Neck And Neck
West Bengal’s 42 seats present a tight competition between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP. As per the survey, both parties are poised to win 20 seats each, with only two seats expected for the Congress. These projections could pose a challenge for the TMC, which won 22 seats in 2019 compared to the BJP’s 18.
Odisha & Jharkhand: I.N.D.I.A Dynamics
In Odisha’s 21 seats, the BJP is forecasted to secure 13 seats while the BJD may win 7, leaving one seat for the Congress. Jharkhand, featuring 14 seats, is anticipated to witness the BJP-led NDA winning 13 seats, with one seat allocated to I.N.D.I.A.
Bihar: A Repeat of 2019
Within Bihar’s 40 seats, the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ comprising BJP, JD(U), HAM, and RLM is predicted to secure 33 seats, while the grand alliance of RJD, Congress, Left, and VIP is projected to win 7 seats. The NDA in Bihar is expected to lose 6 seats compared to the 2019 elections, where the BJP-JD(U) alliance secured 39 seats and the Congress won one seat.
Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana: Unique Scenarios
In Tamil Nadu, a projection indicates that the Congress, in alliance with DMK, could secure all 39 seats. AIADMK may not secure any seats, and the BJP is unlikely to make an impact despite earlier speculations about a potential pre-poll alliance between the two parties.
In Kerala, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) might not win any seats, and the BJP faces challenges in securing seats. The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to claim all 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Telangana is anticipated to allocate 10 out of the total 17 seats to the ruling Congress, while the BJP alliance may secure 5 seats and TRS-AIMIM one seat each.
Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka: BJP’s Prospects in the South
As per the ABP-C Voter survey, the BJP-JD(S) coalition in Karnataka seems to be gaining ground. Out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats, the NDA is poised to secure 23 seats, with the ruling Congress in the state projected to win only five.
In Andhra Pradesh, the NDA is expected to achieve a significant victory, securing 20 seats, while the YSRCP may secure five seats.
Outcomes in Delhi, Punjab, and Haryana
Despite a seat-sharing agreement between the Congress and the AAP, the BJP is forecasted to secure all seven seats in the national capital, Delhi. The AAP, contesting four seats despite governing Delhi, leaves three seats for I.N.D.I.A ally Congress.
In Punjab, the Congress may win seven out of the 13 seats, with the AAP securing four and the BJP two seats. The Shiromani Akali Dal, with a 16.5% vote share, may not secure any seats. The Akalis, contesting in alliance with the BJP, won 2 seats in 2019.
The BJP is predicted to win 9 out of 10 seats in Haryana, with one seat going to I.N.D.I.A.
Focus on J&K and Ladakh
Jammu and Kashmir, experiencing its first Lok Sabha polls post the revocation of Article 370 in 2019, might see the I.N.D.I.A bloc winning three out of the five seats in the Union Territory, while two seats are projected for the BJP.
In the Union Territory of Ladakh, separated from J&K in 2019, the Congress is expected to secure the lone Lok Sabha seat.
Predictions for Northeast India
In Assam, the ruling BJP is anticipated to make significant gains. Out of 14 seats, the NDA could secure 12 seats, with the Congress winning two. The AIUDF does not seem to secure any seats in this region. Among the other 11 seats in the Northeast, the NDA is projected to win 8, I.N.D.I.A two, and ‘Others’ one.
[Disclaimer: The survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 57,566 adults statewide, all confirmed voters between March 11 and April 12, 2024. The survey covered 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. The survey could have a margin of error (regional level) with a confidence level of 95%]
