After the release of the last budget of Rajasthan, now the state has come into election mode. However, the BJP has already activated the election mode for the assembly elections to be held in December.
Within 1 month, PM Modi made 2 important visits to Rajasthan. At the same time, the PM has come to Rajasthan four times in the last four and a half months.
First of all, he had come to Manipur in Abu Road on 30th September. This was the period when Congress MLAs in Rajasthan rebelled.
After this, PM Modi reached Mangarh Dham in Banswara on 1 November. Shortly after this, on January 28, the PM held a meeting at Malaseri in Bhilwara.
Exactly 15 days later, the PM reached Dausa for the inauguration program and meeting of the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway.
It is believed that now PM’s visits to Rajasthan will be continuous. When we analyzed Modi’s previous visits, we understood the special strategy of the BJP and PM regarding Rajasthan. There are many reasons for the PM’s visits to Rajasthan. Political experts consider the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as the main reason behind this.
However, many BJP leaders see this as a new maneuver between different tactics and tussle in Rajasthan.
A special message from every tour
First Tour: Manpur-Abu Road
Bring scattered BJP on one platform
Last year on September 30, after darshan in Ambaji, Gujarat, PM’s visit to the Gujarat-Rajasthan border was proposed, but the PM got late. When Modi arrived after 10 pm, he refused to hold the meeting citing rules as he was late.
People were waiting for hours, so sitting on the ground and apologized. This tour was seen in connection with uniting the BJP in Rajasthan. Because this was the day when all the prominent leaders of the BJP in Rajasthan were together on one platform after a long time.
Effect on seats: Efforts are being made to win 3 seats in Sirohi, 5 in Jalore, and 6 in Pali. Efforts are also being made to influence the two Lok Sabha seats of this region, Sirohi-Jalore, and Pali seat.
Popular photo: There is a rule not to use loudspeakers after 10 pm. In such a situation, the PM did not hold the meeting, bowed down, and apologized to the people 3 times. This picture became very popular.
Second tour: Mangarh-Banswara
Connecting with Govind Giri helped the tribals
On November 1, the PM reached Mangarh, the abode of tribals. Here he remembered Govind Giri, the idol of the tribals. He also remembered the Jallianwala Bagh-like massacre in Mangarh. CMs of three states including Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot were present here.
Modi gave a clear message here that the BJP will revive the great men who have been forgotten. It was believed that the PM would announce to make of Mangarh a national memorial during this tour, but it did not happen.
Seats affected: 8 in Udaipur, 5 in Banswara, 4 in Dungarpur, 3 in Sirohi, and 2 in Pratapgarh. Apart from this, Udaipur and Banswara-Dungarpur Lok Sabha seats will also be affected.
Popular photo: During his speech, PM Modi called Ashok Gehlot as Senior Chief Minister. The chemistry between the two was discussed. At the last moment, PM Modi did not declare Mangarh a national monument and also played a political stroke.
In the program held at Mangarh Dham, PM Modi, and CM Ashok Gehlot were on a stage in the program. During this, Modi called Gehlot the most senior Chief Minister.
Third Tour: Bhilwara-Malaseri
Trying to connect Gujjars with lotus flower
This meeting of the PM was held on January 28 at Malaseri Dungri, the place of worship of Gurjars. The gathering took place on the occasion of the 1111th manifestation of Lord Devnarayan. The PM tried to pacify the Gurjar community here. In his speech, he linked Gujjars to the lotus flower. Talked about the old relationship with Gujjars. It was believed that the PM would announce the Devnarayan Corridor here. But here also the PM did not make any announcement.
Impact on seats: Attempts to influence 8 seats in Ajmer and 7 seats in Bhilwara district. Apart from this, a direct focus on Gurjar dominated 15 seats. Even on those seats was Gurjar’s influence. Apart from this, efforts were also made to win the Lok Sabha seats of Ajmer and Bhilwara.
Popular picture: Not a single Congress Gujjar MLA was called by the Devnarayan committee. Even CM and Sachin Pilot were not invited. At the same time, only selected leaders were given a place on the stage. Several senior BJP leaders also sat outside the dais. Prominent people associated with the Gurjar community and the temple were given a place on the stage.
Fourth Tour: Delhi-Dausa Expressway
BJP’s model of development shown on the pretext of an expressway
PM reached Dausa on 12 February. He was accompanied by Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari. Expressway from Delhi to Dausa was inaugurated. During this, Nitin Gadkari mentioned about the ongoing road projects across the country. The PM emphasized the model of development instead of politics in this gathering. Referring to the new roads and trains in the country, the PM has tried to show that the BJP’s focus is on the development of Rajasthan.
Which seats are affected
The PM tried to win 19 seats in Jaipur, 11 in Alwar, 5 in Dausa, and 4 in Tonk. Apart from this, BJP was also eyeing Dausa, Tonk-Sawaimadhopur, and Jaipur rural seats.
In the budget of Rajasthan, the matter of reading the old budget speech of the CM was discussed. Two days later, PM Modi took a jibe at the incident without naming it during his visit. Reference was made to an old incident related to the RSS, it became popular.
In the meeting held during the inauguration of the Delhi-Mumbai Expressway, PM Modi emphasized the model of development instead of politics. Tried to tell that BJP’s focus is on the development of Rajasthan.
Where BJP is weak, Modi’s face will be projected there.
Senior leaders and experts associated with BJP say that PM Modi is an important part of the BJP’s strategy regarding the 2023 elections. It is certain that BJP will enter the fray without a face in this election. In such areas where BJP is weak, BJP will project PM Modi as its face. The same will happen in the future also. This will be seen especially in the tribal seats of Eastern Rajasthan, North-Western Rajasthan, and Southern Rajasthan.
BJP will be shown as united where strong
Similarly, in areas where BJP is strong, BJP will try to show itself united. There is an internal tussle among the prominent leaders of the Rajasthan BJP. In such a situation, in areas where BJP is strong, BJP wants to keep away from mutual conflicts in any case. So that in its strong stronghold, BJP does not suffer a loss due to mutual tussle.
Touched 100 Assembly seats, 10 Lok Sabha seats
The PM has touched 100 assembly seats and 10 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan since his previous visits. It is believed that till the assembly elections, he will have more than 20 meetings in Rajasthan. In such a situation, till the assembly elections, the focus of the PM will be on securing all the assembly seats in the state as well as the Lok Sabha seats. On the other hand, talking about the Vidhansabha, PM Modi has so far influenced about 100 seats in 15 districts.
BJP’s focus is on 25 Lok Sabha seats.
Political experts and senior BJP leaders told the Lok Sabha elections behind PM Modi’s frequent visits to Rajasthan. Experts believe that Rajasthan is one of the few states which has a good number of Lok Sabha seats. At present, BJP has 24 out of these 25 seats. One seat is with the RLP with whom the BJP had tied up in Rajasthan. In such a situation, now BJP wants to capture all these seats of Rajasthan once again in 2024.
BJP has considered Dausa and Nagaur two seats from Rajasthan as difficult for itself. The main reason for this is Sachin Pilot and Hanuman Beniwal.
In Dausa, where Gujjar voters are in majority, in Nagaur, there are a large number of Jat voters supported by Beniwal. This is the reason why PM Modi is constantly focused on such seats.
PM’s every visit is important, its main political reason
Focus on 25 ST seats, out of which only 8 BJP
There are 25 tribal-dominated seats in Rajasthan. These are reserved ST seats. Out of these 25, only 8 seats currently have BJP MLAs. In these too, all these are the seats of southern Rajasthan.
Apart from these, BJP has not been able to win any seats in East and Central Rajasthan. This is the reason why the focus of both BJP and PM is on tribal seats. For this reason, PM’s visit to Mangarh has been considered important in Rajasthan.
8 Gujjar MLAs, not a single one from BJP
Similarly, talking about Gujjar seats, BJP is not in control of most of the Gujjar-dominated seats. There are 8 Gujjar MLAs in Rajasthan, but none of them is from BJP.
There are 7 Congress and 1 independent MLA. Apart from this, BJP is weak where Gujjars influence. This is the reason why Malseri’s program has been seen from the point of view of helping the Gurjar community.
There is a tussle between Sachin Pilot and CM Gehlot in Rajasthan. In such a situation, this time the BJP wants to keep the Gujjar community with it and take an edge in the assembly and the Lok Sabha.
BJP has only 7 out of 46 seats in East Rajasthan
Similarly, BJP’s focus is on East Rajasthan as well. Here out of 46 seats in Alwar, Bharatpur, Dhaulpur, Dausa, Karauli, Sawaimadhopur, Tonk, Baran, and Bundi districts, only 7 seats are with BJP.
Among these, Bharatpur, Dausa, Karauli, and Sawaimadhopur are the districts where BJP does not have a single seat. Whereas Baran, Dholpur, and Tonk have only 1 seat each.
In this too, the BJP has abandoned the support of Shobharani Kushwaha from Dholpur. This is the reason why the PM visited Dausa in eastern Rajasthan. In the future too, PM’s visits will be seen in East Rajasthan.
Trying to show solidarity where strong
South-Western Rajasthan is the place where BJP is very strong. The BJP is strong in four districts of this region, Sirohi, Jalore, Pali, and Udaipur.
Out of 22 seats in these districts, BJP is ruling on 17 seats. This is the reason why when the PM reached Abu Road, he only tried to show the solidarity of the BJP there. All the prominent leaders of the BJP participated in this tour.
